Jerry Kill Stock Watch 1.0

Anyone who has been a fan of the Golden Gopher football team the last 40 years knows that the head coach position has been a revolving door of unsuccessful candidates.  Some coaches take one spin and others just go around in circles for what seems like forever.  Regardless of the length of the ride, the coaches leave Dinkytown with their tail between the legs for one reason or another.

With that in mind I thought I'd do a Stock Watch on the tradable commodity that is Jerry Kill.  I'll adjust his stock value based on team competitiveness, win/loss record, recruiting, staff retention/replacements and to a lesser degree, fan chatter.

I figure that the max the stock can valued at is 100 where Kill just won the BCS Championship game and is named Gopher Coach For Life all the way down to 0 which is where Tim Brewster found himself last fall.  Here are the in between values:

3/27/11 BX Recruiting Update

Commitments

Caleb Stacy (OG, OH) has verballed to Michigan over offers from WV, BC, ILL, WF, Indy, Cincy and NCST and a handful of MAC offers.

Brent Wilkerson (DE, MD) verballed to PSU over 18 other offers from the likes of Neb, Mich, Clemson, WV, MSU UNC, SCAR, Iowa and Louisville among others

Ben Braden (OL, MI) decided to pull the trigger on Michigan much like I suspected last week.

Camren Williams (MLB, MA) chose PSU over Mich, UNC, BC, Mizzou, Virg, Vandy, Mary, U Conn, U Mass

The Wisconsin running game gets a little stronger as Vonte Jackson pulled the trigger on Wisconsin.

News

The state of Minnesota class of 2012 just got a little bit stronger as the new Viking OL coach Jeff Davidson is bring his son with him from Charlotte.  A 6-7 270 pound son that is on the Rivals 250 watchlist and already has offers from Clemson, VT, WV, SCAR, UNC, tU, NCST, Stan, Mary and Duke.  Minnesota actually seems like it could be a viable option that this point so let’s keep our fingers crossed.

2011 Predictions

5. A 2^nd year coach will be fired. There were plenty of dud hires last year.  Turner Gill had a rough year at KU, Rob Ianello barely got a single victory at Akron, Derek Dooley’s Volunteer squad was no match the the good SEC teams, Dan Enos didn’t live up to the lofty expectations that Butch Jones and Brian Kelly set, Bobby Hauck really tanked at UNLV and Brian Kelly put himself, and a student videographer, in harm’s way with a horrific accident at a ND practice last year.

4. The trophy case won’t be bare.  The Gophers are gonna beat somebody they aren’t supposed to.  My guess is that it will be Iowa, but seizing the Axe or LBJ would be even sweeter.  The Governor’s Victory Bell would just mean we beat PSU, which is much cooler than having possession of the Governor’s Victory Bell.

3. Expansion isn’t over. It starts with the Big East looking to convince Villanova to become a FBS program.  Then they set their sights on B12 North programs that are still feeling mighty exposed even though Texas is allowing them to be a part of their conference.If the B12 programs don’t bite then UCF would jump at the chance.  If KU, KSU, ISU or Mizzou do jump on a Big East offer then it’s open game on the rest of the non-Longhorn programs.  The SEC could revisit their interest in Texas A&M and Oklahoma.  The BX could cherry pick two more schools (although it would probably have to include ND)  You have to feel uneasy if you are a fan of a program not in the SEC, BX or P12.

2. Red Reign.  Nebraska suddenly has access to BX type cash and their football program becomes even more powerful.  Add in the fact that they have been invited to enter homes nationwide due to the BX ESPN  / BTN contracts and will not be overshadowed by Texas and Oklahoma.  Factor in the problems occurring in Columbus and I think Nebraska will enjoy a decade long romp through the BX (ala tOSU in the 00’s) starting in 2011.

1. Paralysis by Overanalysis.  I can’t speak for anyone else but I tend to get swept up in the April / August media positivity towards the Gophers.  There have always been plenty of articles stating what the problem was last year and now we have taken the steps to fix those problems.  When Gopher fans refer to the media negativity from the local fish wraps, it is geared towards the columnists who really don’t opine on the Gophers until the season starts.  Until then it’s a healthy dose of Marcus Fuller and Phil Miller with their daily feel good story about the Gophers.  Don’t get me wrong, I love to read nice things about the Gophers but I think it alters my prediction of how I think the Gophers are going to do.  So I’m going to project the 2011 BX Standings now and then do it again this fall and see if they vary much and if they do which one is more accurate, the one with more info or the one with less.

Projected Standings

Nebraska 12-1 (7-1) Fiesta Bowl

Penn State 9-4 (6-2) Rose Bowl

Ohio State 9-3 (6-2) Outback Bowl

Michigan State 9-3 (5-3) Gator Bowl

Illinois 9-3 (5-3) Texas Bowl

Wisconsin 8-4 (5-3) Capital One Bowl

Northwestern 6-6 (5-3) TicketCity Bowl

Iowa 8-4 (4-4) Insight Bowl

Michigan 5-7 (2-6)

Minnesota 5-7 (2-6)

Indiana 5-7 (1-7)

Purdue 4-8 (1-7)

2010 Lessons Learned

5. Cut and Run.  When you start to see the cracks in a coach’s armor, it is time to cut ties.  Joel Maturi did the right thing letting Mase go when he realized that his team had given up on him at the Debacle Bowl.  Michigan AD Dave Brandon did the right thing when it seemed that nobody at UM wanted to embrace Rich Rod and his reluctance to do things the Michigan way.  I realized right after the near escape from South Dakota State that the Gophers were not going to get where they wanted to go.  But then Joel Maturi extended Brew to save what was not a great recruiting class.  Did we really think that Minnesota would not be able to continue on without players like Josh Tauaefa?  The real gets like Jimmy Gjere, Lamonte Edwards probably would have come to Minnesota regardless of who the coach was.

Recruiting Around the BX

The foggy haze of St. Patty’s day has lifted, the second weekend of the NCAA tourney is about to begin, spring ball starts tomorrow and the early evaluation period is just around the corner.  Jerry Kill has been active on the recruiting trail netting verbal commitments from three home grown talents, WR Andre McDonald (a Rivals 250 to watch lister that also had offers from Iowa, MSU and Illinois), QB Philip Nelson and TE Maxx Williams.  A 4th (Nick Rallis) is unconfirmed as nobody knows if he has an offer or not.

Coach Kill isn’t the only one gaining early commitments.  Here’s an early look at the class of 2012 recruiting around the BX:

QB Recruiting Update

The QB recruiting process plays on although it is still in its early stages.  We’re just starting combine season and the Elite 11 camps have begun as well.  There haven’t been any major developments this week but I thought I’d give a little update on the QB’s.

The All-BX teams - The Last 5 Years

Holy slack job Batman!  I’ve let entirely too much time pass by without posting anything.  I was doing some research and planning on comparing all of the major internet scouting services and seeing who does the better job of projecting who will be a good college football player.  I was also kicking around an element of comparing the rankings to the offer lists of the all BX football players.  But that takes time and I am realizing that it is a really long post.  So I guess I’ll have to break it down some.

The last five years of all BX players (coaches poll, who cares about the press) presents some numbers that really shouldn’t surprise anyone like Ohio State has more players on this list than anyone else and NW, Indy and Minnesota have fewer than most.  Also as your number of all BX players increases, so do the number of BX wins.

Spring Practice - 10 Things to Watch

The Golden Gophers start spring practice next week and look to carry the momentum of a two game winning streak to close the 2010 season into their spring workouts.  The Gophers are the last team to start workouts among BX schools.  The workouts are open to the public and culminate with a controlled scrimmage in lieu of a spring game on April 23 at TCF Bank Stadium.  There are plenty of things to watch for in the coming weeks.

BX QB Recruiting

The quarterback is the most important position on a football team.  When the ball is snapped their action are the focal point for three to seven seconds.  They are the leaders and face of the program.  They are also the lynchpin to recruiting success.

All offensive recruits want to know who their QB is going to be.  This is the guy who is going to put them in the right formations, call the right play and lead their team to victory.  If you can land a great QB you are likely to see him pull in a great class with him.  QB recruiting is so important that almost every program tries to wrap up their QB before they really get going on their other positions.

There are many different approaches to recruiting your QB.  Some schools recruit only one per year where others bring in two.  Some schools send out a ton of offers and others are very selective about whom they offer.  Some programs like to have a pro-style QB and others like a dual threat QB or they might bring in one of each.  Some schools swing for the fences and try to land an elite QB while others are satisfied with bringing in a lesser talented but easier to land prospects.  A QB can live anywhere and be get recruited.  I know that Minnesota isn’t a regular stop for Miami (FL) and FSU but that didn’t stop them from landing a couple Walshes, Chris Weinke and Joe Mauer back in the day.

The QB recruits themselves also want to get their decision made sooner than the other positions because they want the opportunity to choose the program that they feel will best showcase the abilities.  This means that not every program is right for every recruit.  It’s like a game of musical chairs but there are many more recruits than there are FBS scholarships available on an annual basis.  Offensive philosophies are important but so is the QB coach, the depth chart, the competition you face and the kind of exposure the school can give the recruit.

Looking Back: Ranking the Class of 2009

Yesterday I looked back at the rankings I had for Tim Brewster’s class of 2008 and today I revist the Class of 2009

The Class of 2009

1.      Hayo Carpenter – 5* JUCO WR this ultra-productive WR could be a fantastic complement to Eric Decker.  I am really excited for Hayo to come aboard

2.      Ra’shede Hageman – 3* UA All-American TE chose the Gophers over offers from TOSU, Fla and Oklahoma

3.      Michael Carter – 4* Army All-American CB had offers from Florida, Texas, FSU, Georgia and Auburn

4.      Hasan Lipscomb – 4* RB had offers from LSU, Texas A&M and Nebraska

5.      Josh Campion – 3* OT verballed shortly after receiving his written offer on September 1 of his junior year.  Good bloodlines as his brother played in the NFL

Looking Back - Ranking the Class of 2008

I was looking back at some of the prior rankings I had for Tim Brewster’s classes (I really don’t count 2007 as a Brewster class) and it was interesting to see what I was thinking at the time.  This is how I was expecting the players to perform just after signing day 2008.

The Class of 2008

1.      Marquise Gray – 4* QB Army All-American, Indy Nike Camp co-MVP and was an Elite 11 QB invitee but Indiana HS rules prohibited him from participating

2.      Simoni Lawrence – 3* S JUCO was tabbed early on as the #1 defensive recruit for the Gophers

3.      Tramaine Brock – 3* S JUCO has good speed and a nose for the ballalong with SEC offers

4.      Keanon Cooper – 4* S UA All-American is a great athlete who can play at either safety position and possibly at WLB

5.      Brandon Green – 4* WR was on the Rivals & Scout 100 teams in March 2007 and is a playmaker

Abbreviations & Nicknames

Looking back at what I've written in the last couple of weeks...its been pretty dry and recruiting centric.  Both qualities that I didn't have in mind when I started.  Maybe it's time for something a little more fun.


It can be kind of boring to refer to everything by it's proper name or to spell everything out so you switch things up or shorten it.  Some things are easily translated like running back is RB, quarterback is QB, etc.


Here's a list of what I like to call some things:


Big Ten = BX
Big Ten Network = BTN
Junior college player = JUCO
college football = CFB
Jim Tressel = Evil Sweater Vest
Brady Hoke = Not Les Miles
Bo Pellini = Bobo
Joe Paterno = Joe Pa (somethings you just have to respect, like Joe Pa)
Kirk Ferentz = Captain Kirk
Brett Bielema = The Madtown Playboy

The Jerry Kill Era Begins - First Impressions

Kill has said that fair evaluation of a recruit is after 4-5 months and you really won’t know for two years.  That’s a fair assessment and one I think applies to head coaches as well.  First impression of Tim Brewster was all upbeat as it seemed everything that was coming out of the Nagurski-Gibson Complex was positive and seemingly a breath of fresh air.  But once the class of 2010 started making their list of top 5 schools and Minnesota was not on those lists then you realized that the ride was coming to an end.

Jerry Kill has been the head coach of the Gophers for about 3 months so let’s put him under the microscope and look at his pros and cons for our first impression.

Pros:

Kill’s staff is always studying other programs’ best practices so they are always trying to improve

They are able to have plenty of kids attend junior days and have kids visiting from other states (at least more than Brew and Mase were able to attract)

The staff really wants to do their due diligence to make sure the players they bring in fit the profile of what they want in a recruit.  I’m guessing that the number of transfers and spring/summer brushes with the law will decrease significantly.

Brewster vs Mase - Who left the program in better shape?

I had no intentions of delving into the pre-Kill era with this blog, but there are some things that are just unavoidable.  I’ve heard a lot of people talking about how much better Tim Brewster left the program in comparison to Glen Mason.  The players now are so much more “athletic” and definitely have more speed I’m told.  Heck, Brewster talked about it every chance he could.

Ranking The Hotbeds

1.      South Florida (100 mile radius of Miami) The 100 mile radius sounds bad but the ocean and swamp land limit the recruitable real estate.  So Fla averages 160 D1 prospects per year and 75 BCS signees per year.  It is rich in speed, especially in DB, DE, LB and RB.  Basically everything that Minnesota is lacking.  You could recruit the entire area very well with two coaches.  Coach Miller is said to have great contacts in So Fla and I know that one of Kill’s staff members recruited So Fla for NIU.  Yes this area is recruited heavily by Florida, FSU and Miami as well as a helmet school here and there supplementing their class.  But after that you’re competing against schools like North Carolina, West Virginia or Louisville as well as in-state schools South Florida, Central Florida, FAU and FIU which doesn’t seem as daunting.

2.      Dallas / Ft Worth Metroplex (50 mile radius of Arlington, TX) The Metroplex is the richest hotbed in terms of recruits per mile.  This 50 mile radius averages 150 D1 signees and 75 of those go to BCS schools.  The QB’s are great and these players may not be as athletic as those from So Fla, but they make up for it in Football IQ.  The Metroplex is more well-rounded when it comes to the type of recruits it produces than So Fla.  Even though there are a plethora of recruits, there are a handful of schools depending on the Metroplex to stock their roster.  Texas and Oklahoma cherry pick the best from the top and then Texas A&M. Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas Tech and TCU take the next level of recruit.  It might not be as big of a deal except Texas kids usually like to stay closer to home so winning recruiting battles over Arkansas, Baylor, Missouri, Kansas and KSU is a little tougher.  Coach Pat Poore is already covering the Metroplex for the Gophers.

Filling In the Class

If we can count on Minnesota to provide our TE and OL (guessing four scholarships per year) and four other recruits, then we’re left to fill the other nine (assuming we can redshirt everyone and class sizes are equal) scholarships from outside the borders.  Defensive end and defensive back are most likely to be filled elsewhere as are running back and linebacker.

Let’s look at the upcoming class of 2012 for an example:

From my count, we have 17 scholarships to give out this year assuming there are no transfers, no academic casualties and allow existing walk-ons to keep their scholarships.  From what I said above we’ll likely sign approximately eight recruits from Minnesota.  Here is how the 2012 in-state class appears to project:

QB – Philip Nelson (committed), Joe Mollberg (not likely to be offered by MN)

RB – Antonio Ford (possible offer), Kendrick Brewster and Andrew Larson (not likely to get an offer)

WR – Andre McDonald (committed), Emeche Wells (possible offer), Kasey Robinson (not likely)