I know I've been away for a while but I've had an itch to post something, anything really, for a while now. But when all you have to say is the same tired, negative thing as you said the last week and the week before then it takes the fight out of you. Why subject Gopher fans to what I'm experiencing in my head? It's bad enough that I have to suffer through that.
I wanted to write something that basically said I still support the Gophers despite the tough times we are all experiencing right now. But every time my fingers stroke the keyboard it ends up some kind of scathing rant which isn't going help anything. Maybe I'll have better luck tomorrow?
I was going to do some CFB point spread analysis this season, but consciously trying not to think about the blog made me forget about it. I'll focus my efforts there and maybe I can have fun that way...
Week 5 lines - first thoughts:
Minnesota at Purdue (-10.5) - 48.5 o/u and a 10.5 pt spread means a 29-19 game. The Purdue O has really been struggling to execute on Saturdays. Does going up against the Gophers give a boost of confidence or do their woes continue? I'm going to say somewhere in between. It seems that everyone is writing off the Gophers at this point in time. Are people forgetting that Purdue got thrashed by ND 10-38 last week and also have a 22-24 loss to Rice on their resume? The 27-24 W over MTSU is essentially the equivalent of our W over MiamiOH. I think we are fairly evenly matched this week. This is the real litmus test for the Gophers this week. If they have any pride they will step up and keep this game at least at within one score. If there is no pride and Kill has lost the talented senior class (it happens to many new coaches around the country) then we could be in for another long Saturday. I'm leaning towards the Gophers at this point in time.
Michigan (-7) at Northwesetern - I'm not sure what Vegas is thinking on this one, unless Meechigan really sucks on the road. 59.5 o/u and a 7 pt spread would indicate a 33-26 victory for the M men and looks like a gimme game. Beware the gimme game, as it never is quite what it seems. NU has QB Dan Persa back but just lost RB1 Mike Trumpy for the season. The one place where Michigan is weak is the secondary and Persa is a QB that can take advantage of that. Plus Michigan hasn't played away from the confines of Ann Arbor under Brady Hoke but I don't see that being too much of a factor. NU will stack the box and make Denard Robinson beat them with his arm which will pretty much determine the outcome. I want to scream Michigan at the top of my lungs this week, but I'd make them just a slight favorite to cover the spread this week.
Illinois (-14) at Indiana - the line opened at -16.5 but heavy early action on Indiana has Vegas making some adjustments. Indiana did drop 7 passes against PSU which certainly would have changed the face of that game, where they beat the spread by 10 points. I think that Illinois has the potential to be a high powered offense but hasn't been able to put all the pieces together and has only beat D1A teams by three points per game. Indiana is still trying to figure out the pieces to their puzzle. 52.5 o/u and the 14 pt spread indicates a 33-19 Illini victory. This is Illinois' first road game and the Hoosiers are playing pretty well at home this year. If I had to pick I'd say Indiana, but not enough to put anything down on it.
Iowa at PSU (-2) - 44.5 o/u and a 4 point spread equates to a 24-20 game. That sounds about right. The line started at -2 and has moved to -4. If this was a night game I'd be all over PSU. Neither team has looked that great in 2011. With Iowa having two weeks to game plan for PSU I like the Hawks to win straight up so they could be a moneyline bet for me this week, but I really like them with 4 points.
Ohio State at Nebraska (-11) - 44 o/u and an 11 point spread gives us roughly a 27-16 game. Boy could TOSU use Devier Posey and Boom Herron this week, but both have had their suspensions extended. Plus they lost 2nd leading receive Verlon Reed for the season. Taylor Martinez doesn't strike me as a very tough individual and I predict that he'll struggle against the TOSU defense. Problem is that the TOSU offense has struggled all year. I'd take the under in this game and have a sneaking suspicion that the Buckeyes will cover much like the Gophers.
Let's see what happens this week!
No comments:
Post a Comment